Why did Russia invade the Ukraine?
Why did Russia invade the Ukraine?
A few weeks ago on 24 February President Putin ordered Russian forces to attack airports and military headquarters in Ukraine. Tanks and armed forces then marched into the country from its Russian and Belarusian borders.
Russia has been invaded several times through the Ukraine. 27 million Soviets including 15 million Russians died when the Nazis invaded. Even before that there was WWI and the French invasions of Russia under Napoleon. When tensions rise in Europe Russia is attacked through this region as a result the country has two red lines that it does not want crossed which are allowing Ukraine to become part of NATO and allowing Ukraine to be a staging ground for the placement of foreign troops or advanced weapons.
Putin had been threatening this invasion but many were surprised to see Russia actually march into Ukraine including advisors to the Putin regime. This is not the cold calculated approach that Putin has typically had. The invasion has served to unite the West against him and pushed any possible European allies into American hands. Countries like Sweden and Finland are even considering NATO membership and the West’s sanctions placed on Russia are wreaking havoc on their economy. Although Russia is still likely to win this war their progress has not been to plan as they have been met with strong resistance by a country that they assumed would quickly crumble. There has been little if any benefit to Russia since this invasion began and this is very unlikely to change.
Even in Russia the war has been met with widespread disapproval including several protests that were immediately suppressed, in cities like Moscow. Countries such as China, an important ally to Russia on the world stage have not shown support for the invasion although they have not followed the West with sanctions and open condemnation. A likely theory to explain Putin’s decision is that seeing the eastward encroachment of NATO saw war as inevitable an so moved to strike first, securing the most well trodden path into Russia by taking Ukraine by force. Nevertheless the decision to invade shows the lack of care for the lives of Ukrainian citizens and Russians, many of whom have family in the region. Putin’s attack screams of desperation and a desire for Russia and its demands to be taken seriously by the West.
Many in the West suggest that Putin simply wants to expand Russian territory and is willing to destroy Ukraine to do it. This ignores the serious threat of NATO forces which continue to accumulate on Russia’s border and ignores the aggression from countries like the US sending weapons halfway around the world to threaten Russia. America wants to put a wedge between Russia and Europe so that the US has control over the continent and to do that they must establish a culture of hostility towards Russia. Under the Trump administration they tried to sabotage the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would see Russia supply Germany with large quantities of natural gas, as the US would prefer the Germans be reliant on natural gas supplied by them. This would maintain the country’s dependence on America at the cost of more expensive natural gas for Germany. Additionally the US has been pushing for NATO members to increase their defence spending against the wishes of their own governments and for countries near Russia to host more NATO weapons. It was the push to put weapons in Ukraine that encouraged Russia’s original escalation. However, Ukraine was never close to joining NATO. President Biden said as much recently before the invasion. Putin’s actions here only bring death and destruction onto millions of innocent people with little benefit to Russia’s national interests.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is wrong but the right reaction is to pursue peace not encourage more hostility between the West and the rest of the world. While Ukraine is a sovereign nation and should be free to choose its allies who it allies itself with is significant to Russia as they share a border. Allying with NATO and putting missiles so close to Russia, NATO’s biggest enemy, is an obvious threat to the country. Putin compared the actions of the US to Russia hypothetically installing missiles in Canada or Mexico on their American borders, an act that the United States would never tolerate. In the 1990s NATO said ‘not an inch to the East’ but the organisation continued to enlist former Soviet states and move further eastward. The policies of NATO encourage a constant arms race between Russia and Western Europe with each side trying to ensure that should war break out they won’t be overwhelmed. This is the same constant heightening of tensions that has previously led to worlds wars and could still should Western powers decide to send in forces to shoot down Russian planes over Ukraine. Many of Russia’s neighbours are already in NATO, and any clash on a border with one of these nations would trigger mutual defence obligations that would force all other countries in NATO to intervene. This constant aggression only makes war more likely.
Ukraine is a former republic of the Soviet Union and as such has close historic ties with Russia. Before the war started there was a big split in the country between those who wanted to strengthen ties to Russia and those wanting to move more in line with Western Europe. Ukraine’s future may not be with the East or the West instead it may look more like Finland and Austria when the Cold War began, who weren’t a part of the Soviet Union or NATO after WWII. This may be the only way to keep peace in the country and end the suffering of the Ukrainian people as Russia clearly will not accept a Ukraine that is hostile to it.
The West must continue to put pressure on Russia to end the war and support the country’s antiwar movement. This war will only end with peaceful negotiations like every other war. Putin must be given a way out of the mess he created to stop the continued destruction of Ukraine. Returning to the Minsk agreement signed in 2015 and making Ukraine neutral between the two superpowers would do this. Russia has made a huge mistake in this war but it has acted in its own interests choosing to destroy a neighbouring country to protect itself, this means that there is good chance the war can be stopped by making assurances to Russia to withdraw weapons from Ukraine and keep the country out of NATO, as Putin had demanded in negotiations before the war.
